Grading the MLB Draft

So the Major League Baseball draft has begun.  Almost all of us are fans of a specific team, and the most diehard fanatics have read up as much as they can on every prospect being considered.  The casual fan won't know Joe from Tom, and if their favorite team is drafting high, he or she is just desperate for some talking head to say "your team did a great job!"

But as we scramble to our computers to look for columns giving out draft grades, we should keep something in mind: these draft grade columns are pointless.  Keith Law of ESPN.com, their head "scout" and master of all things draft-related, refuses to give out grades, for good reason.

How can you grade a team the day after it has chosen what amounts to just a person?  They haven't thrown a pitch or hit a ball in the minors, let alone the major leagues.  For example, just because Colorado selected highly-touted pitcher Tyler Matzek eleventh overall in the first round doesn't mean it was a steal of a pick.  If they don't sign him, it is a terrible pick, especially knowing that he is going to demand an outrageous signing bonus.  Armed with that knowledge, a team must be prepared to overspend or it's a wasted pick. Even if they do sign him, if he sucks in the minors or majors and doesn't perform like a first rounder should, it's still a wasted pick.

On the other hand, analysts want to rush out and look for "steals of the draft."  But we never know what a steal is until 4-5 years later.  Most guys drafted after the 7th round or so never even make the majors.  Then you get a Jake Peavy in the 15th round, as the Padres did, and he turns into a Cy Young Award winner.

So while it's nice to hear that my favorite team is receiving high marks for its draft selections today, talk to me in five years when those opinions actually hold water.  Because only then will we know what 2009 brought us.

(Photo: Getty Images)

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Chase Parker believes in the East Coast bias, stretching triples into doubles, and considers Tommy Boy to be the greatest athlete of our generation.

Unless otherwise stated, no particular sexual orientation of anyone depicted is implied or should be presumed.