I Predicted What?!

We're past the non-waiver trade deadline in major league baseball, which means a couple of things. 1) We have two months of exciting pennant race baseball 2) There are sure to be other trades simply because teams cannot take on money with the economy the way it is, rendering the typical waiver process a non-deterrent 3) It's a great time to look back at my earlier comments on pretenders and contenders and rip myself.

On June 1st, I put on my monkey suit and threw a dart at the wall, hoping it would stick.  I offered up my list of contenders and pretenders.  Some good, some bad, and very ugly.  My past words in italics, my current observations below in blue.

AL Contenders:

New York (29-21, 1st, East): Playing great since A-Rod's return, and hasn't gotten much from him. Pitching can only improve.

The pitching HAS improved.  It had to.  Though nobody should be relying on Sergio Mitre, or trading for Chad Gaudin (who got knocked around in the lesser NL).  But they're planning on sticking to their pledge to shut down Joba after X amount of innings, which could be a problem in September.

Boston (29-22, 2nd, East): They've got excess pitching which means another bat will be on the way.  And if David Ortiz isn't done, that's 2 bats.

They HAD excess pitching. But Wakefield went down with an injury, Daisuke has been awful and is out til September.  John Smoltz has nothing.  Clay Buchholz hasn't lived up to the hype.  This team is in serious trouble, despite adding Victor Martinez's bat.

Tampa Bay (25-28, 4th, East): The Rays have been treading water but now that David Price is up, he may be able to help right the pitching ship that began sinking when Scott Kazmir lost it.

Funny, Price hasn't been the answer, but Kazmir is finally pitching better.  This team is lurking in the weeds.

Detroit (28-21, 1st, Central): They've surprised me.  Their pitching is dominating.  Edwin Jackson has put it together, and Justin Verlander is back throwing heat.

Not an impressive division, but still holding down the fort.  Dominating pitching at times.

Minnesota (25-27, 3rd, Central): They're one Francisco Liriano away from having the best pitching in the division, if he can get it together.

They're still one Francisco Liriano away (circa 2007, not the 2009 version that sucks).

Cleveland (22-30, 5th, Central): After playing the Yankees June 1st, they have just 7 games remaining against the top 4 teams in the AL East.  This means one of baseball's top slugging clubs can outscore teams and make up a mere 7.5-game deficit.  And if they ever start to pitch...

How many synonyms are there for "OOPS!"

Texas (30-20, 1st, West): I don't believe.  But they lead by 4.5 games and only the Angels will be challenging them.  And the Angels have had no luck this year, so maybe that's why Texas will win it? They can't continue to pitch this well.  They're the Rangers, after all.

Well, as expected, the Angels have passed them.  But they're not terribly far behind and still in the wild card chase.

Los Angeles (25-24, 2nd, West): They're the best team in the West.  But they're battered by injury, tragedy, and age issues.

And they're back where they are supposed to be, atop the West, despite making no major moves.

AL Pretenders

- Toronto: Those no-namers can't continue to pitch this well

- Kansas City: Already coming back to earth

- Chicago: They'll try to get a couple bats, because they aren't hitting

- Seattle: They'd be silly to try to contend when they have sellable parts to build for 2010

Toronto got battered, KC sunk below earth, the White Sox made a desperate pitch for Peavy that may or may not work, and Seattle is doing exactly what I thought they should.

NL Contenders:

New York (28-21, 2nd, East): Considering the amazing run of injuries they've had, it's a Christmas miracle that they are only a half-game out.

And the beat goes on.  Who would have thought they'd lose Beltran, Reyes, and Delgado for the bulk of the season, in addition to a rash of pitching injuries?  What an amazing year.

Florida (23-28, 4th, East): This speaks more to my thoughts on the Phillies and Braves (below), and the Mets' propensity to keep things interesting, but I really believe in the Marlins' starting pitching. A little bullpen help and some discipline in their lineup, and they could surprise.

They don't need to be getting swept by Washington, but they are hanging in there.  They should have traded for Heath Bell.

Milwaukee (30-20, 1st, Central): Losing Rickie Weeks may not be a bad thing, as Craig Counsell is an able fill-in.  Trevor Hoffman has stabilized their bullpen, their lone Achilles heel in 2008.

Their starting pitching situation is getting ugly.  Still in it of course, but these guys can't pitch.  Should have made a run at Jarrod Washburn.

St. Louis (29-21, 2nd, Central): Exceeding expectations, this team seems to have something special going on despite distractions (Carpenter injury, Greene weirdness). Getting a few bats back, they may be ready to make a big run.

Which they seem to be doing.  Adding Matt Holliday and Mark Derosa has given Albert a little help.

Chicago (25-24, 4th, Central): They have been brutally inconsistent.  They miss Aramis Ramirez in their lineup. Lou Piniella isn't playing Reed Johnson enough.  But he'll lose patience with Milton Bradley soon, and Ryan Dempster is starting to deal.

Figuring out this team is perplexing.  Dempster went down with a freak injury when he broke his toe jumping over the dugout rail after a team win.  Bradley is on the bench.  They need a good streak, because somehow, they're still right there.

Los Angeles (35-17, 1st, West): They've handled the loss of Manny Ramirez wonderfully, as expected.  They haven't lost more than two games in a row all season.

Not much has changed.  Manny has been pseudo-Manny upon his return.  The bullpen is running on fumes, though, and the starters are starting to show leaks.  But they still hold a 6.5-game lead.  Playoffs could be a problem without two dependable starters.

San Francisco (25-24, 2nd, West): Their GM and manager are fighting for their jobs, and they have a great farm system to deal with.  And they need bats. Plural. Because they are wasting some of the best starting pitching in baseball.  But if they get a bat or two, look out.

Well, they got two bats (Garko, Sanchez).  They didn't get mashers, but they upgraded a few ticks.  Fascinating team to watch.  Leading the Wild Card now with a crucial homestand to be followed by a make-or-break 10-game road trip through New York, Cincinnati, and 4 in dreaded Colorado.

Pretenders:

- Philadelphia: I know they are in first now and are defending world champs, so I'll get ridiculed for saying this.  But they just don't have enough pitching, especially after losing Myers, and not enough in the farm system to acquire any reliable arms.

Well, I was wrong that they didn't have enough to get a reliable arm. They got Cliff Lee.  Rookies have stepped up (Happ).  This is my Cleveland pick in the NL.

- Atlanta: They aren't scoring, and their outfield is the main problem. Their pitching is average, but they don't have the money to take on any salary in potential deals.

They made a few plays (McLouth, Church, LaRoche) that haven't broken the bank and have helped ignite their offense.  Will their pitching hold up?

- Cincinnati: Emerging offense and improved pitching, but they aren't quite there. Harang isn't pitching like an ace anymore.

There's an understatement.  He isn't pitching like a third starter, even.

- San Diego: 10-game winning streak not withstanding, I've already recently outlined why this team isn't for real.  But it was a hearty effort, boys.

Barely even a AAA squad now.  'Nuff said.

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